A COLLECTION OF FUTURES RESEARCH METHODS
How Do We Explore Our Futures? Methods of Futures Research
Acta Futura Fennica 10; The Finnish Society for Futures Studies
This book comprises 20 leading Finnish futurists revealing their practical and theoretical knowledge of futures studies. The texts are a cross-section of twenty years of futures research. The writers present methods and their practical applications, demonstrating various interactions between futures research and other fields of science.
The book samples a large variety of modern futures studies’ methodology including sections on evolutionary and systems thinking, expert-based knowledge evaluation and time-series based methods like Delphi and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). The book also deals with communicative futures methods such as futures workshops and scenario work. In addition, it includes three chapters focusing on newer methods such as the anticipation of Weak Signals and Black Swans.
This book is a comprehensive reading for all those interested in futures studies theory and its practical applications. As a fundamental publication of futures studies methods this book is also suitable for lecture support material for universities.
The purpose of the book is to familiarize the reader with the idea of futures studies and the basic methods of futures as a scientific discipline. We hope that the readers will find this publication and its arguments a stimulating trigger, launching creative argumentation about our responsibility to imagine alternative futures.
This book, How Do We Explore Our Futures?, is an English edition based on the 3rd revised edition (2013) of the Finnish 1993 original Miten tutkimme tulevaisuutta?. The book will be published in English as an answer to increasing international demand for Finnish original contributions to the fields of Futures Studies and Foresight.
Editorial Board: Osmo Kuusi, Sirkka Heinonen & Hazel Salminen
Publisher: The Finnish Society for Futures Studies (www.futuressociety.fi)
Series: Acta Futura Fennica 10
Price: 45 euro + postage (discounted price 40 euro for members of the Finnish Society for Futures Studies).
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- Sirkka Heinonen and Osmo Kuusi: Introduction
I The Fundamentals of Futures Knowledge
- Pentti Malaska: Futures Consciousness and the Knowledge of the Future–Focus On the Future
- Ilkka Niiniluoto: Futures Studies: A Science or Art?
- Matti Männikkö: Studying the Future and Writing History
- Olavi Borg: The Disciplinary Identity of Futures Studies and Its Relation to Other Disciplines
II Evolutionary and Systems Thinking
- Jyrki Luukkanen: System Models in Research and Planning–Building a New Dialectic Framework
- Jarl-Thure Eriksson: Chaos Theory and the Manageability of Complex Systems
- Mika Pantzar: The evolution theory as a Futures Research Method
- Osmo Kuusi: Futures Research and Economic Models– Different Approaches of Economics and Futures Research in Modelling
III Scenario thinking
10. Pentti Malaska and Ilkka Virtanen: Theory of Futuribles and Historibles
11. Yrjö Seppälä: The Futures Table (Morphological Matrix) Method–Case Report: Care for the Elderly
12. Vuokko Jarva: Scenarising in Dialogue
13. Tarja Meristö: Scenario Building in Strategic Management–Why Scenarios?
14. Timo Sneck: From the Functional Paradigm of Futures Studies to E-Forecasting Systems
IV Futures Workshops as Methodology
15. Juha Nurmela: The Future Workshop and New Methods for Shaping the Future in the “Workshop Spirit”
16. Marja-Liisa Viherä: We Make the Future – The Communication Camp
V Expert-Knowledge-Based Evaluation
17. Osmo Kuusi: The Delphi method
18. Sirkka Heinonen: Pioneer Analysis and International Cultural Changes Positrend and Negatrend Analysis in the Identification of–Cultural Change
19. Anita Rubin: Causal Layered Analysis
VI The Creative Recognition of New Opportunities
20. Elina Hiltunen: Weak Signals
21. Tuomo Kuosa: Future Signals as a Sense-Making Tool
22. Sirkka Heinonen and Juho Ruotsalainen: Anticipation and Interpretation of Black Swans As A Learning Process–The Lessons of a Volcanic Ash Cloud
23. Petri Kylliäinen: Role-Playing Game Scenarios
Futures Research Terminology